A global Information and Communication Technology player, Hewlett Packard, and other top officials in Africa’s ICT industry have declared that cases of Information Technology products counterfeiting has been on the increase in the past years in Nigeria and other countries in the African continent.

This was the fulcrum of their conclusion at this year’s edition of Anti-Counterfeiting Africa Conference held in Johannesburg, South Africa by HP, where participants discussed the economic looses of and made clarion calls on governments on how to tackle counterfeiting.

Government officials, lawenforcers and representatives of ministries responsible for anti-counterfeiting, gathered at the summit to discuss consumer protection and raise awareness against illegitimate goods.

Speaking at the two-day conference aimed at educating and empowering organisations across the continent against the effects of counterfeit trade, Brand Protection Programme Manager for HP’s Printing and Personal Systems group, Mr. Jeff Kwasny, said Africa was now being used as a transit route for fake goods, ad development, he said, posed an indirect threat to European and American markets.

“HP is a company that places a priority on protecting customers and its brand and that is why we are raising awareness on the impact and consequences of counterfeit trade at the two-day summit in Johannesburg,” he said. During the summit, HP outlined how to fight counterfeiting, and looked specifically at how policy makers can toughen applicable laws and enforcement capacity across Africa. According to reports, the global trade in counterfeit goods is growing and Africa is increasingly being targeted as a market for counterfeit merchandise.

African nations are therefore becoming increasingly aware of challenges that counterfeit trade represents to their economies and their citizens, and becoming active in the fight against it. Commenting, Printing and Personal Systems Africa Director for HP, Mr. Fabrice Campoy, said the HP Anti-counterfeiting Programme works hard to protect partners and customers, but added that was only made possible through close collaboration with law enforcers around the world.

“We therefore truly appreciate the cooperation of African law enforcement to helping to make this event possible, and protect African customers from the inferior standards and potential risks of counterfeit,” Fabrice said. According to Fabrice, Original HP supplies distinguish themselves by their superior quality and reliability at competitive prices.

While the global economy loses about $6 billion annually to the menace of counterfeit phones coming through the grey market, according to latest  Mobile Manufacturers Forum, (MMF),  report, Samsung Electronics has said that it would  deepen partnership with the relevant authorities and vendors in Nigeria to tackle influx of fake phones.

The  new report by MMF  showed that in 2013, no fewer than  148 million counterfeit mobile devices were sold through visible retail sites, with many more expected to be sold in unofficial retail outlets, online auction websites and in local black markets worldwide.

A grey market is the trade of a commodity through distribution channels which, while legal, are unofficial, unauthorized, or unintended by the original manufacturer.

The most common type of grey market is the sale of imported goods brought by small import companies or individuals not authorized by the manufacturer.

The MMF is an international non-profit organisation founded in 1998 by a number of leading manufacturers of mobile radio equipment, including leading ones like Nokia, Samsung, Apple, as well as network suppliers like Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks and Alcatel-Lucent, among others.

It would be recalled that the Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement Department of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), had earlier  played host recently to the Director, Europe, Middle East and Africa, of Mobile Manufacturers Forum (MMF), Mr. Thomas Barmuller, for bilateral discussions with the regulator on reassuring the Nigerian telecom consumer of their safety from electromagnetic field (EMF).

The MMF report informed that lab tests on more than 50 counterfeit devices found that most failed basic compliance tests against industry standards for network connectivity, which translated into a very high percentage of call dropouts for users.

According to the report, network coverage was significantly reduced as more substandard devices connected to the network, which created coverage blackspots that could only be fixed by installing 80 per cent more base stations.

The report, according to  MMF Secretary General, Micheal Milligan in Brussels, Belgium,  “with the average knock-off phone selling for around $45, our conservative estimate of $6 billion in illegal sales represents a massive financial loss for governments and the mobile phone industry.

“Governments can combat the growing counterfeit phone problem with new technology which
can identify substandard devices on the mobile network and permanently block users who don’t change to a genuine product.”

In India alone,  the MMF claims that counterfeits make up more than 20% of the cellphone market, causing US$1.5 billion annually in lost sales, $85 million direct tax losses and $460 million indirect tax losses. “Counterfeit phones are made with cheap sub-standard materials and have been shown to contain dangerous levels of metals and chemicals like Lead,” Mr. Milligan said.

Although counterfeit mobile phone is a global issue causing economic damages to equipment manufacturers, the  Director, Hand Held Product, Samsung Electronics West Africa, Emmanouil Revmatas  who spoke to  the Nigerian IT Journalists at the just concluded Samsung Forum held in Malaga, Spain assured that they were working with government to clean the market with substandard mobile phones which cut across all brands of phone.

Even though he did not give precise figure on the Nigerian market, he said that the impact of grey market is significant in Nigeria, adding that relevant authorities must join hands to address the ugly trend.

At the forum that showed latest Samsung products available in the global IT market, he said that,
“We will continue to educate the consumers on original Samsung phones. We have engaged the government. We are working with the Nigerian Communications Commission. Our products are type-approved. Samsung is very active in Nigeria. We are active in Corporate Social Responsibility. Samsung products have continued to do well in Nigeria and other markets  around the world. Our products have continued to be the toast of consumers”

At the 5th Samsung African forum that attracted Samsung’s  African vendors including Nigeria, he said that  Samsung has been very active in Nigeria, creating awareness and educating the consumers on how they can get original products.

   “We have engaged the ministry of Communications Technology, the NCC and we will  deepen partnership  with them to clean the market. The most important thing is that we have been informing our customers on how to identify  original products. This we do through education and awareness. We do this through consumer forums to protect the brand. Education and government effort  are more needed to stem the tide” he said.

Speaking to one of the  Samsung’s vendors at the forum that was well attended , the Chief Executive Officer of Dallas Communications Nigeria, Emeka Uyaelumuo,  admitted that fake phones are not limited to only Nigeria market.

While calling on the relevant authorities to join hands in the clean up exercise, he advised end users to always buy phones from authorized Samsung dealers in the Nigerian IT market which he said is the largest in Africa.

“Computer Village is a big market. It has given jobs to millions of Nigerian. Many authorized dealers are in Computer Village where consumers can buy good phones. Dallas Communication has maintained good name in original phones.  

Before now, the Nigerian regulatory , the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC,  in partnership with the Nigerian Customs Service and Phone Dealers Association of Nigeria had last year in  Lagos organized a one day forum to sensitize end users again on the dangers of buying fake phones coming through grey market.

Veteran film maker, Tunde Kelani, threatens not to release movies in Nigeria again as pirates hijack his new film, Maami, AKEEM LASISI reports
 
At a time celebrated film maker Tunde Kelani should be very happy and laughing all the way to the bank, he is currently a sad man. The usually optimistic producer is indeed downcast and disillusioned. Reason: Maami, a film he released on DVD on Monday,  has been massively pirated.
 
“This may be the last time I will release a film in Nigeria,” TK said on the phone in an emotional  voice on Thursday. “Our industry is completely gone. I released Maami on Monday. Barely 24 hours after,  pirates are using wheelbarrows to sell it in Lagos.  They have pirated the film such that it has flooded every nook and cranny of Nigeria.  Interestingly, everyone quotes this miracle data about the development of  Nollywood and its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product. What a lie! I can’t go on like this. This may be the last time I will release any  film, at least here in Nigeria.”
 
 Years after Kelani finished work on the film that stars Funke Akindele and Olumide Bakare he could not release another one. While he screened it in different parts of the country and beyond, his experience with pirates on his earlier movies that include Arugba and Campus Queen did not encourage him to push Maami out immediately. Now that he has eventually released it, the goons have yet ambushed him.
 
 Also in a statement released by Kelani’s Mainframe Production on Thursday, he  said he was called by fans to draw his attention to the activities of the pirates who recreated the imprints and the jackets of the film, dubbed on cheap DVD for sales. The original copy of Maami, marketed by Ajimson Integrated Services Limited, as mastered on DVD , is contained in a jewel box and is laminated.
 
Nigerian film industry, he feared, would continue to experience the menace of pirates and investors would suffer due to lack of infrastructure, especially when physical distribution channels are infested by pirates whose dangerous activities are unchecked.
 
“In the last 10 years, I have tried everything to survive the attacks. I have relied on donors and well- wishers to continue to make films but each time I loose all the investments, therefore I cannot continue to live the rest of my life in this dangerous place called Nigeria.”
 
So disillusioned is Kelani that he fears for young Nigerians wanting to go into film business.
 
He explained, “I pity young Nigerians aspiring to become filmmakers and my advice to them is to seek other media if they have the talent or they can go to agriculture because Nigeria one day will need to feed itself. Nigeria that Fela Anikulapo called BBC, the Big Blind Country is finally here.”
 
Kelani’s story is not different from what many of his colleagues have experienced.  Apart from distribution issues, pirates feast on films and musical works with impunity. The Nigerian Copyright Commission says it is doing its best but this is far from being enough to bring sanity to the sector. So bad has the situation become that many actors, producers and directors are facing hard times, not minding the fame and usual physical glitz they radiate.

…as active phone subscriptions hit 127 million

Telecoms subscribers in Nigeria currently spend an average of N447.8bn monthly on recharge and top-up cards .The development is coming even as the active telephone subscriptions in the country hit a record 127 million, according to the latest industry data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission.

The centrality of telephone services to individuals’ and businesses’ daily activities is underscored when the current spending on telephone services is compared with other priority expenditure of Nigerians.

According to findings by a Nigerian commercial law firm, Aluko & Oyebode, while Nigerians spend an average of N447.8bn on recharge cards monthly, their current monthly spending on house rent is estimated at N149.1bn; petrol, N128bn and for motor vehicle services, N14bn.

National Mirror also gathered that expenditures on soap and washing powder, kerosene, electricity including pre-paid vouchers, currently stand at N149.4bn, N144.8bn and N91.8bn respectively while repairs and maintenance activities cost Nigerians N8.7bn.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ forum organised by the NCC for lawmakers in Lagos, Managing Partner, Aluko & Oyebode, Mr. Gbenga Oyebode, who reeled out the Nigerians’ spending statistics, said telecoms services had become very central to any economy.

“Telecoms services have become very central to our daily lives, whether to individuals, businesses or government. Over the years, the importance attached to telecoms services is being underscored by the increasing expenditures on telecoms services,” he said.

Oyebode said the increasing expenditure on telecoms services was informed by the telecoms sector “potential in the 21st century, where it is creating new information highways; changing the business/service delivery landscape; promoting efficiency; providing opportunity/capacity building and economic growth|”.

According to Oyebode, Information and Communication Technology in general has remained a catalyst for growth in Nigeria. “ICT has recorded significant impact in Nigeria in areas such as e-commerce, financial services, e-governance, e-learning.

However, other untapped areas include e-agriculture and ehealth,” he added. Oyebode noted that broadband was the next frontier for growing the Nigeria’s economy, lamenting that broadband penetration was currently estimated at six per cent in Nigeria.

He, however, stressed that only five per cent of the bandwidth capacity available on overseas cables was currently being used, leaving 95 per cent of the capacity redundant.

“Notwithstanding all of the potential of ICT to Gross Domestic Product, Nigeria still lags behind due to insufficient development of necessary laws to protect ICT infrastructures,” he said. Meanwhile, the NCC has said that as at December 31, 2013, the number of active telephone subscriptions had reached a whopping 127 million.

The latest subscriber statistics showed that the country connected 169 million telephone lines, covering the Global System for Mobile Communications, Code Division Multiple Access, CDMA, and the fixed wired/ wireless lines operators of which 127 million were currently active.

However, in the Mobile Number Porting scheme launched on April 22, 2013 by NCC, about 45,101 subscribers exchanged mobile operators in the last quarter of 2013.

Further breakdown of the statistics revealed that GSM operators, including MTN, Globacom, Airtel and Etisalat, connected 159 million lines with 124 million active. The CDMA operators, whose fortunes have plummeted in the last five years, sustained a downward trend with a connection of 7.6 million lines, while only 2.4 million lines remained active.

The fixed wired/wireless operators connected 2.3 million lines with only 360,537 lines left active. Also, Nigeria recorded a growth in its teledensity, from 81.7 per cent in January 2013 to 91.1 per cent by the end of the year under review.

Telephone density or teledensity is the number of telephone connections for every hundred individuals living within an area. It varies widely across nations and also between urban and rural areas within a country.

The statistics also showed that telecommunications operators’ total installed capacity, which was 226.6 million by January 2013 went up to about 248.4 million by the end of the year.

It could also be deduced from the statistics that MTN Nigeria, which recently reported revenues of N794bn in 2013 and paid N1.23trn to government as taxes in the last 13 years, remained the largest mobile operator in the country, with over 56 million subscribers and 45 per cent market share.

Globacom, owned by oil magnate, Otunba Mike Adenuga, followed with 21 per cent market share and over 25 million subscription; Airtel, with 24.8 million subscription controls 20 per cent of the market. Etisalat, after five years of operations in the country, has about 18 million subscribers and 14 per cent market share.

In addition, it was gathered that for Mobile Number Portability statistics, in October, 8,105 subscribers ported out; 7,830 in November and 5,850 in December. In terms of porting in, 8,112, 8,242 and 6,962 subscribers ported into the networks in October, November and December respectively of the period under review.

The CDMA operators, including Visafone; Multi- Links; Starcomms and the dormant Zoom Mobile, continue to record decline in telephone subscriptions. According to the NCC data, the CDMA operators, which started the year with about 14 million subscriptions, lost about 6.35 million connected lines to end the year with 7.6 million. However, of the figures, only 2.8 million were active in January, 2013 and by December, 2013, it fell to 2.4 million. Visafone controls more than 65 per cent of the total CDMA subscriptions in the country.

The Lubricant Producers Association of Nigeria recently tabled a complaint before the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, following the influx of fake lubricants into the Nigerian market. The association also asked the Federal Government through its agencies to find a solution to the problem considering the level of revenue loss they were recording, as the adulterators controlled a portion of the market.

Apart from the uncontrolled importation of the adulterated lubricants, it has been established that locally, some dubious people refill lubricant containers with lubricant-substances, and subsequently sell the same to unsuspecting citizens for almost the same price as the original product. This development, which has persisted for a long while now, had been described as the bane of the industry, as many of the local manufacturers are now almost out of the market.

The Executive Secretary, LUPAN, Mr. Emeka Obidike, had said most of the products in question were produced with recycled oils, with little or no additives. LUPAN had warned that granting lubricants import licences to people without knowledge of the industry could result in closure of legitimate existing plants, unemployment and economic losses to the nation.

Currently in Nigeria, there are two regulatory agencies for lubricants— the Department of Petroleum Resources, and the Standards Organisation of Nigeria. While DPR licenses firms to produce any petroleum product, SON monitors quality of products to ensure standardisation. The DPR had consented to initiating the requisite mechanisms to fight substandard lubes in the country. The agency had prohibited the sale of lubricants or materials claimed to be lubricants in unbranded, unlabeled packs or plastic bottles in open market areas or roadside stands. It also said it was working to inform stakeholders of the dangers of patronising unlicensed retailers, and creating an awareness campaign to dissuade the public from using unbranded lubricants.

In line with this, the Federal Government had also said it was stepping up supervision of base oil importation in the attempt to ensure base oils go only to licensed lube blenders, rather than ending up in the hands of vendors who pass the raw product off as finished lubricants. Government, through its agencies, is also making effort to increase the frequency of quality assurance visits to blending plants, with a move to deploy motorised testing laboratories in every part of the country to check adulterated lubricants. To check this trend, some stakeholders in the industry have reiterated the need for higher tariff on imported lubricants in order to protect local producers and help them to remain competitive. Low tariff on raw materials would also lift the local industry.

Adulterated lubricants, according to LUPAN, could cause irreparable damage to engines, through wearing and knocking. It is therefore estimated that Nigeria’s economy loses about N250bn annually to adulterated lubricants processed and sold at roadsides.

LUPAN had expressed worries that the investments of its members running into billions of naira would crumble if the anomaly was not addressed. The DPR said it was collaborating with SON and LUPAN in the campaign against the distribution and retailing of adulterated lubricants.The Director General of SON, Mr. Joseph Odumodu, had stressed that there was a multiplicity of problems within the lubricants market.

He had said that, “One of the challenges is the fact that people are bringing in processed lubricants. They were lubricants used before and cleaned up. The fact is that they do not have the same ability to withstand the pressure from genuine ones.

“One major challenge is how we can stop the roadside people from selling base oil as lubricants. Most of these oils are base oil and some of them unprocessed. Unfortunately, an average Nigerian does not know the difference. Once they see what they call engine oil or lubricant, they use them.”

In a bid to ameliorate the situation, the DPR said it remained committed to mobilising the rest of the industry to check the excesses of adulterators, while adding that it had strengthened its licensing and permits processes by making sure that only genuine firms are allowed to import and blend lubricants.

Legitimate companies in the business, it was learnt, will re-package their products to protect them from adulteration. Firms like Conoil, Oando, among others, had joined the campaign. Recently, Oando Marketing Plc called on the Federal Government to curb the influx of sub-standard lubricants into the Nigerian market. The firm had said that the influx of fake and substandard foreign lubricants into Nigeria was not good for the industry.

Inasmuch as stakeholders in the industry want a clampdown on fake dealers in lubricant products, they also believe that strict adherence to provisions of the Local Content Act, as far as the business is concerned, will strengthen local players, drive creativity, and check ethical abuse.

With decades of experience in the world of business, Mr. Biodun Marquis, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Pragmatic Technologies, in this interview, asserts that multilevel marketing’s (MLM) ability to alleviate poverty actually depends heavily on the potency and sustainability of the product distributed. These products, he says, should be greatly considered by anyone before subscribing to any MLM business opportunity.

Reaching end-users at no cost
Multilevel marketing is actually used by companies to increase their sales channels by letting others work for them instead of them having to worry too much about getting to the end-users. It’s simply looking for resellers rather than the traditional employment of sales persons.

Sustainability
While most people believe such business opportunities can serve as a major source of income, a major factor that should be considered before thinking that way is the product being sold by the company. Is this product in demand? Is it a fad? If a product is a fad, people will only make noise about it for a few years and then it dies off. But if it’s not, then that makes the business sustainable as all parties involved will keep making good money from it.

Online selling vs MLM
However, online selling remains the easiest way of getting to many buyers at once. Although, its greatest disadvantage is that you cannot ‘feel’ the product. For someone like me, when I want to buy a product, I like to feel the texture and every other thing about it, as well as try to know if it suits me.

Factors to consider before joining a MLM company
Before subscribing to any MLM company, you must first analyse the product marketed. Is the product essential? Most products distributed via multilevel marketing like a few years ago are no longer selling. In fact, I hardly even hear about them today. Such products cannot constitute a sustainable business for any man or woman who perhaps thinks MLM can be his sole source of come.

MLM and poverty alleviation
MLM’s capacity to end poverty 50-50; it may either hold true or fail. But what else do you expect a manufacturer who wishes to push his product into the market to tell anyone who can help market it? But the truth is, whether engaging in such business opportunity will take a reseller or distributor out of poverty is a function of the product’s potency. If the product is of good quality and people are buying it without being pressured to do so, then yes, it will take the recruited downlines out of poverty. But if the product is not in demand, the recruited downline is going to find it very frustrating, energy-sapping and money-consuming.

- By Biodun Marquis

The World Bank has stated that Nigeria has one of the highest inflation rates, which pushed an estimated four million people into poverty between January and May 2023. This was disclosed during the launch of the June 2023 edition of the Nigeria Development Update on Tuesday in Abuja.

The Washington-based lender also said about 7.1 million poor Nigerians would become poor if the Federal Government failed to compensate or provide palliatives for them, following the removal of fuel subsidy. According to World Bank data, 89.8 million Nigerian were poor as of the beginning of this year. The lender noted that additional four million Nigerians became poor between January and May this year, raising the figure to 93.8million.

Latest projection means the number of poor Nigerians will rise to 100.9 million if the government fails to compensate vulnerable citizens for fuel subsidy removal.

The World Bank Nigeria Development Update report noted that Nigeria’s inflation has risen to a 17-year high, and has been driven by a number of factors, such as CBN funding of budget deficit, previous multiple exchange rates, devaluation, and trade restrictions.

The report read, in part, “Consumer price inflation has surged and is currently one of the highest globally, which is related to Nigeria’s fiscal imbalance and points to the urgency of reform efforts. Inflation in Nigeria has been high for many years due to structural factors, but it escalated in 2022, to the point where consumer prices increased at their fastest pace for 17 years.

“The consumer price index further accelerated in 2023 through May, up to 22.4 percent y-o-y. High inflation has been driven by the monetization of the fiscal deficit by the CBN, multiple exchange rates and exchange rate depreciation in the parallel market, and intensified trade restrictions, exacerbated by the spike in global food and energy prices.

“The CBN implemented measures to control rising inflation, including raising the monetary policy rate by 700 basis points, but these proved ineffective and monetary policy remained loose overall in the first half of the year. The loss of purchasing power from high inflation has increased poverty in the short-term, pushing an estimated 4 million Nigerians into poverty between January and May 2023.”

The National Bureau of Statistics recently disclosed that inflation in the country rose to 22.41 per cent in May, which is the highest in about 19 years. Also, the NBS, in its National Multidimensional Poverty Index report, disclosed that 133 million Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor. The NBS said 63 per cent of Nigerians were poor due to a lack of access to health, education, living standards, employment, and security.

The Multidimensional Poverty Index offered a multivariate form of poverty assessment, identifying deprivations across health, education, living standards, work, and shocks.

In its new report, the Washington-based bank noted that the loss of purchasing power increased the poverty headcount rate by an estimated 2 percentage points or 4 million people. This may mean that the total number of poor people in the country has risen to 137 million this year.

The World Bank added that the number of poor people in rural areas increased by an estimated 4 percent, while in urban settings, there was an estimated increase of 11 per cent.

The Brenton Woods institution further noted that with the removal of fuel subsidy, about 7.1 million people are at risk of becoming poor if no form of compensation is provided by the government.

The report read, “In the immediate term, the removal of the petrol subsidy has caused an increase in prices, adversely affect ting poor and economically insecure Nigerian households. Petrol prices appear to have almost tripled following the subsidy removal.

“The poor and economically insecure households, who directly purchase and use petrol as well as those that indirectly consume petrol, are adversely affected by the price increase. Among the poor and economically insecure, 38 percent own a motorcycle and 23 percent own a generator that depends on petrol. Many more use petrol dependent transportation.

“The poor and economically insecure households will face an equivalent income loss of N5,700 per month, and without compensation, an additional 7.1 million people will be pushed into poverty.

The World Bank warned that many newly poor and economically insecure households will likely resort to consequential coping mechanisms, such as “not sending children to school, or not going to the health facilities to seek preventative healthcare or cutting back on nutritious dietary choices.”

The bank stressed the need for adequate compensation, noting that compensating transfers will be essential in helping to shield Nigerian households from the initial price impacts of the subsidy reform.

The lending institution further applauded the removal of the subsidy and FX management reforms, which are crucial measures to begin to rebuild fiscal space and restore macroeconomic stability.

KPMG has stated that the Nigerian unemployment rate had increased to 37.7per cent in 2022 and will further rise to 40.6per cent, due to the continuing inflow of job seekers into the job market.

The multinational consulting firm, in a newly released report tagged ‘KPMG Global Economy Outlook report, H1 2023,’ said unemployment will continue to be a challenge due to the slower-than-required economic growth and the inability of the economy to absorb the 4-5 million new entrants into the Nigerian job market every year.

“Unemployment is expected to continue to be a major challenge in 2023 due to the limited investment by the private sector, low industrialisation and slower than required economic growth and consequently the inability of the economy to absorb the 4-5 million new entrants into the Nigerian job market every year. Although the National Bureau of Statistics recorded an increase in the national unemployment rate from 23.1per cent in 2018 to 33.3per cent in 2020. We estimate that this rate has increased to 37.7per cent in 2022 and will rise further to 40.6 per cent in 2023.”

The report also said that in 2024, the unemployment rate will grow to 43 per cent while inflation will accelerate to 20.3 per cent in 2023 and 20.0 per cent in 2024.

The KPMG further noted that the incoming administration will face a deeply rooted challenging environment, characterised by fragile and slow economic growth and challenges in the foreign exchange market.

“Additionally, government revenue remains inadequate to support much-needed expenditure, leading to a high debt stock and high debt service payments. The Nigerian economy ended the past year with a GDP growth rate of 3.52 per cent in Q4 2022, compared with 2.25 per cent in Q3 2022, with growth averaging 3.10 per cent over 2022,” it explained.

The firm projected recovery in telecommunications, and trade services, as well as an expected recovery in the oil sector, on account of measures being taken to tackle security issues, to drive the forecast of three per cent growth in 2023.

“Growth in 2022 was driven by the non-oil sector, as continuous recovery in household consumption boosted spending, particularly in the finance and insurance services, telecommunications, and transportation and storage services.

“While the non-oil sector grew by 4.84 per cent, the oil sector contracted by 19.22 per cent, largely attributed to worsening oil theft, pipeline vandalisation, underinvestment, and other operational challenges inhibiting oil production. Accordingly, oil output (including condensates) declined from 2.07 million barrels per day in Q1 2020 to 1.34 million by Q4 2022.”

It further said that the spillover from an expected slowdown in the global economy in 2023 and its trade and financial flows implications would drag on Gross Domestic Product.

The report claimed that growth will be negatively affected by the naira redesign policy introduced in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. According to KPMG, it has implications on key non-oil sectors like manufacturing, trade, accommodation and food services, transportation and other services, further slowing down overall GDP growth in 2023.

“Headline annual inflation maintained its upward trend throughout 2022, reaching its highest levels in almost two decades and closing the year at 21.34 per cent, with food inflation and core inflation growing by 23.75 per cent and 18.49 per cent, respectively. This was driven by persistent structural issues, which impacted domestic food production and transportation such as insecurity, floods in key agricultural producing areas and rising international food and energy prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other policy-related bottlenecks, which continue to impact the cost of doing business.”

It also noted that the expected fuel subsidy removal and the 2023 fiscal bill would also mount pressure on domestic prices in 2023.

“To combat rising inflation, the Nigerian Central Bank raised the monetary policy rate by a cumulative 500 basis points in 2022, to 17.5 per cent, and increased the cash reserve ratio from 27.5 per cent to 32.5 per cent. However, despite these aggressive rate hikes, inflation has remained stubbornly high and is predicted to remain above 20 per cent in 2023, due to the persistence of the structural and policy issues.”

KPMG further said that growth was set to be driven by the continuous recovery in household consumption, sustained performance of the non-oil sector and a recovery in oil production.

“Inflation to remain elevated, driven partly by persistent food supply shocks, foreign exchange illiquidity, and insecurity. We expect Nigeria’s GDP to continue to grow at a relatively slow pace of three per cent in 2023, due to the slowdown in economic activity that typically characterizes periods of political transition in Nigeria.”